This Better Work

Chip Kelly’s decision to go with Darron Thomas over Nate Costa at quarterback makes sense coming from a man known as a risk taker, but there may be one off-the-field risk he didn’t take into account when choosing his starter. Costa, a 5^th year senior who has fought back from injury over and over again, has more experience in the sense that he’s more familiar with the playbook, and was supposed to be the starter 2 years ago before hurting his knee. This in turn has earned familiarity and respect from his peers in the locker room. How much backlash could be coming from the upper classmen on the team over this decision to go with the inexperienced sophomore instead of Costa?

The Ducks Quarterback Controversy 2010 has been billed as experience vs. potential. If you want veteran leadership and in-depth knowledge of the playbook, you want Costa. If you want high-risk, high reward, big play potential, you want Thomas. Just think back to the big 4^th quarter explosion against Boise State two years ago, when Thomas went for 210 yards and 3 touchdowns in the period while almost rallying the Ducks back from a 19 point deficit. After it all played out and the announcement was made on Friday, I’m not sure it was that simple.

Chip Kelly has a “win-now” mentality. He realizes he has a very talented, experienced team (17 returning starters) that’s favored to win the Pac-10 this year. The potential future benefits of giving Thomas the reins speak for themselves. He could a 3 year starter, in the same mold of player as Dennis Dixon. Since Kelly only cares about the now, not the later, this means Thomas most likely won outright in the competition against Costa. He’s not in there for his potential. He’s in there because right now, he’s the better quarterback.

This drastically helps his case against any possible backlash. Even though an older player will have paid his dues, if the younger player is simply better, then he should be the one taking the field. Hopefully, most of the upperclassmen will realize this, despite any loyalty they may feel towards Costa.

The real problems will come to a head should Thomas flounder in any of the early games. The Ducks’ non-conference schedule could very well have them at 3-0 going into Pac-10 play. First up will be New Mexico, a seemingly simple Mountain West opponent that only won one game last year. Then the Ducks have to travel to Tennessee to take on the Volunteers in a very winnable matchup against an average SEC team. Then they wrap up the non-conference schedule back home against the lowly Portland State Vikings, a Big Sky team whose biggest news this offseason was that they were going back to their familiar green jerseys.

The Lobos and Vikings games should be cakewalks for Thomas and the Ducks. Any struggles he shows there should be red flags, and the concerned upperclassmen will have their concerns validated. Mark the Tennessee game as the first genuine litmus test of the Darren Thomas decision. An inexperienced, young, underclassman quarterback making his second career start on the road in the SEC will face a very uncomfortable situation at Neyland Stadium. If he’s successful, this will be a good sign for the Ducks. This year’s Vols team is of about the same quality as most other Pac-10 teams. If he struggles, expect to hear cries to bring on the Senior. Hopefully, for Thomas’, Kelly’s, and the Ducks’ sake, Thomas will not struggle early on, because locker room dissonance can only hurt the situation, especially during an in-season quarterback controversy.

Wait and See

This week has brought more news about icons from the Oregon Ducks' recent past as opposed to concrete answers about the future. LeGarrette Blount made headlines with another notorious punch after a scuffle during his preseason practice with the Tennessee Titans. Despite no official word from Houston Nutt, Ole Miss seems to have found its starting quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. As for the Ducks, there is still no word on who will start the season under center. Between Nate Costa and Darron Thomas, it's still a toss-up, and the Ducks supporters are split into essentially two camps: those that want the older, more "experienced" Costa since he has more of a familiarity with the system, or the younger, more dynamic Thomas whom they believe should start getting playing time since he is the present and future of the program.

Chip Kelly announced Wednesday that a decision won't be reached until the week of the season opener against New Mexico, saying, "We're not going to do anything until the week of the game. We've got more scrimmage time, more situations. Those guys know. We're not going to turn around tomorrow and say 'Hey, this guy is starting or this guy is No. 2.' There is no reason for us to rush to judgment and put anybody in there."

He went on to explain his apprehension towards naming a starting quarterback this "early" might stem from the decision made on Costa in 2008: "We were just about to name him and he got hurt. Then, all of a sudden, you have to go to the other guys. There is no reason to name a starting quarterback, Our first game is 16 days away."

While there are plenty of reasons why having already named a starter would be beneficial to the program, in this case Kelly is quite frankly right. Neither player has separated himself from his competitor enough to warrant being named the clear-cut starter. They seem to be splitting time with the first team, but neither is making the most of his time, and both Costa and Thomas have given inconsistent performances. Consistency at quarterback remains one of the most important aspects for any team at any level, and Kelly has openly said, "We need more consistency out of both of them. There are times when, wow, that’s a real good play. Then there are other times where, 'Hey, we’ve got to get ourselves out of that play. There is a check system in and you didn’t get to it.' They’re doing good things and they’re doing bad things." Until one or the other does more good things than bad things, Kelly has no reason to hand over the reins to either.

Friday's practice had Thomas slide into the lead, but barely. According to John Hunt of the Oregonian, Costa threw a few bad picks, while Thomas ended up having to throw many balls away. Either way, the air game was struggling. How many of Costa's struggles might be the player feeling the pressure of competition, trying to make throws he wouldn't normally make with more on the line simply in order to separate himself from Thomas? How much might Thomas be throwing balls away due to the fact that he's seen coaches reactions to the picks, so he is now making conservative decisions he might not normally make? Either way, consistency is still an issue.

The Ducks gain a certain tactical advantage from not having announced a starter yet. On top of the fact that not much game tape exists for these two (71 career passes between them), without announcing a starter teams won't know who to prepare for. Or at least New Mexico won't. Hopefully, after that, the situation will have figured itself out. Although the real answer might lie in something Kelly said about his incoming freshman and apparent third-stringer, Bryan Bennet: "Our future is now. We’re not saving anybody for anything. If a person, I don’t care what class he is, gives us the opportunity to win a football game – I don’t look at and say let’s redshirt this kid for five years from now. You do that, you might not be here five years from now. If Bryan Bennett is the third quarterback by the time we get out of camp, he’ll be the third quarterback. We’ll figure it out … We’ve played young kids before." Sounds like Kelly won't have any qualms going with the sophomore Thomas.

Paradox In Eugene

Expectations are low for the Oregon football team. After an off season marred by numerous appearances on the police blotter, and a quarterback controversy with no real favorite, this team will be hard pressed to recreate last season’s success.

OR

Expectations are high for the reigning Pac-10 champs. The 11^th ranked team in the country returns 17 starters, including star running back LaMichael James, who set the conference rushing record for freshman with 1,546 yards last season.

Neither of these is wrong. In fact, both of these statements are completely true. This is the paradoxical state of Oregon Ducks football going into the 2010 season. Yes, there are questions at quarterback. But Nate Costa and Darron Thomas have the set of skills necessary to succeed within Chip Kelly’s system. Even though they don’t have much “experience,” they’ve both been there long enough that they’ll know what they need to do. Choosing Costa will give you the more “experienced” (older) player, and starting Thomas will get early reps for the “future” of the program.

Yes, they’ve had some issues with the law this past offseason. But many of those players are gone. Including star quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. Not everyone on the team ran into trouble. Senior tackle Bo Thran started a football camp run by Ducks players, among others, to benefit the victims of a horrible violent episode in Gresham. At worst, they’ve lost a potential Heisman trophy candidate in Masoli. At best, they’ve begun to clean up the program, and Chip Kelly shows he’ll treat everybody equally. These players are growing and maturing as a team, and the 17 returning starters have hopefully learned from their previous transgressions. Or at least James has.

Speaking of James, his 1,546 yards last year are nothing to brush off. But it’s safe to assume Pac-10 defenses will prepare accordingly. Once the situation at quarterback gets itself figured, then they’ll know how much of the load James will have to bear. Whether it’s Costa or Thomas, the load will be sizable either way, just slightly less sizable one way.

Finally, what can be made of the USA today ranking? Nothing anybody didn’t know already: The Ducks are probably the best team in a down year for the Pac-10. The only other Pac-10 team to make the top 25 was Oregon State at 22, but on the whole it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see any of these teams beat each in conference. Except for maybe Washington State. Where they’ll be when conference play starts at the end of September will hinge greatly on how well they pass the test against a feisty Volunteer team, at Tennessee on September 11^th. For now, 11^th best in the country with all of these questions looming in the air sounds about right.